Libro de Visitas Keyla Musik

Michaelacubs

12 Jun 2025 - 02:00 am

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
мальчик гей
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Marattlox

12 Jun 2025 - 12:42 am

construction software for small business
https://github.com/Null2Edge/construction-business-software

best project management software for construction
https://github.com/Null2Edge/construction-business-software

best project management software for construction
https://github.com/Null2Edge/construction-business-software

Michaelorbic

12 Jun 2025 - 12:35 am

darknet markets url darknet drug market dark web market links

Timmyzen

12 Jun 2025 - 12:30 am

darknet markets nexus darknet site darkmarket 2025

Petergot

12 Jun 2025 - 12:20 am

A BetBra e uma casa de apostas oficial no Brasil desde 2025. Esta empresa oferece uma ampla gama de eventos esportivos para apostas, bem como transmissoes ao vivo de torneios internacionais e regionais.
A BetBra tem uma plataforma online que funciona em dispositivos moveis, tablets e computadores.
bet bra bet
Principais funcoes da plataforma:

Grande variedade de eventos esportivos

A plataforma oferece apostas em dezenas de esportes, incluindo futebol, volei, basquete, tenis, MMA e eSports. Todos os eventos estao disponiveis em um so lugar, eliminando a necessidade de procurar informacoes em diferentes sites.

Apostas ao vivo (apostas em tempo real)
bra bet
A possibilidade de apostar durante as partidas com estatisticas atualizadas e transmissoes ao vivo. Esse recurso permite que voce tome decisoes com base na situacao atual do jogo.

Catalogo de eventos esportivos com filtros

Os usuarios podem encontrar facilmente as partidas ou torneios de seu interesse usando filtros por esportes, ligas, datas e probabilidades.

Estatisticas e analises abrangentes

A plataforma fornece estatisticas detalhadas sobre times, jogadores e partidas anteriores, o que ajuda voce a tomar decisoes de apostas informadas.

Suporte multilingue e localizacao

A interface da plataforma esta disponivel em portugues e tambem oferece suporte ao real brasileiro (BRL) para a conveniencia dos usuarios locais.

Variedade de tipos de apostas

Os usuarios podem fazer apostas simples, apostas expressas, apostas de sistema e apostas especiais (por exemplo, no placar exato ou no numero de gols).

Notificacoes de eventos

A plataforma envia notificacoes sobre o inicio das partidas, mudancas nas probabilidades e resultados das apostas. Isso ajudara voce a nao perder eventos importantes.

Aplicativo de apostas esportivas

Um aplicativo pratico para iOS e Android permite que voce faca apostas e monitore os resultados a qualquer hora e em qualquer lugar.

Casa de apostas confiavel

A plataforma opera sob uma licenca e usa criptografia SSL para proteger os dados do usuario. Para seguranca adicional, a autenticacao de dois fatores (2FA) tambem e implementada.

Bonus e promocoes

Novos usuarios recebem bonus de boas-vindas, e usuarios regulares tem a oportunidade de participar de promocoes, cashback e torneios com premios acumulados.

Suporte para sistemas de pagamento locais

A plataforma aceita cartoes bancarios e PIX para depositos e saques faceis.

Transmissoes ao vivo de partidas

A possibilidade de assistir as partidas ao vivo diretamente na plataforma em qualidade HD

Suporte 24 horas por dia, 7 dias por semana

Nossa equipe de suporte 24 horas por dia, 7 dias por semana, esta pronta para responder a quaisquer perguntas via chat, e-mail ou telefone.

Nenhuma outra casa de apostas tem uma funcionalidade tao rica.

bet brasil
https://betbra-br.com/

Jasontow

11 Jun 2025 - 11:48 pm

nexus onion darknet drug market darknet markets url

Michaelorbic

11 Jun 2025 - 10:39 pm

dark web sites dark market list darknet drug market

Nikkymub

11 Jun 2025 - 10:27 pm

darknet market nexus market darknet dark market onion

Michaelorbic

11 Jun 2025 - 08:42 pm

nexus onion mirror darknet site darknet marketplace

Jasontow

11 Jun 2025 - 07:57 pm

dark markets darknet market lists dark web market urls

Keyla Musik

Inicio Info Servicios Productos Libro de Visitas Contáctanos
Si buscas hosting web, dominios web, correos empresariales o crear páginas web gratis, ingresa a PaginaMX Por otro lado, si buscas crear códigos qr online ingresa al Creador de Códigos QR más potente que existe Tweet Libro de Visitas Michaelacubs 12 Jun 2025 - 02:00 am There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one мальчик гей A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic. It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.” Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so. For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November. It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water. Marattlox 12 Jun 2025 - 12:42 am construction software for small business https://github.com/Null2Edge/construction-business-software best project management software for construction https://github.com/Null2Edge/construction-business-software best project management software for construction https://github.com/Null2Edge/construction-business-software Michaelorbic 12 Jun 2025 - 12:35 am darknet markets url darknet drug market dark web market links Timmyzen 12 Jun 2025 - 12:30 am darknet markets nexus darknet site darkmarket 2025 Petergot 12 Jun 2025 - 12:20 am A BetBra e uma casa de apostas oficial no Brasil desde 2025. Esta empresa oferece uma ampla gama de eventos esportivos para apostas, bem como transmissoes ao vivo de torneios internacionais e regionais. A BetBra tem uma plataforma online que funciona em dispositivos moveis, tablets e computadores. bet bra bet Principais funcoes da plataforma: Grande variedade de eventos esportivos A plataforma oferece apostas em dezenas de esportes, incluindo futebol, volei, basquete, tenis, MMA e eSports. Todos os eventos estao disponiveis em um so lugar, eliminando a necessidade de procurar informacoes em diferentes sites. Apostas ao vivo (apostas em tempo real) bra bet A possibilidade de apostar durante as partidas com estatisticas atualizadas e transmissoes ao vivo. Esse recurso permite que voce tome decisoes com base na situacao atual do jogo. Catalogo de eventos esportivos com filtros Os usuarios podem encontrar facilmente as partidas ou torneios de seu interesse usando filtros por esportes, ligas, datas e probabilidades. Estatisticas e analises abrangentes A plataforma fornece estatisticas detalhadas sobre times, jogadores e partidas anteriores, o que ajuda voce a tomar decisoes de apostas informadas. Suporte multilingue e localizacao A interface da plataforma esta disponivel em portugues e tambem oferece suporte ao real brasileiro (BRL) para a conveniencia dos usuarios locais. Variedade de tipos de apostas Os usuarios podem fazer apostas simples, apostas expressas, apostas de sistema e apostas especiais (por exemplo, no placar exato ou no numero de gols). Notificacoes de eventos A plataforma envia notificacoes sobre o inicio das partidas, mudancas nas probabilidades e resultados das apostas. Isso ajudara voce a nao perder eventos importantes. Aplicativo de apostas esportivas Um aplicativo pratico para iOS e Android permite que voce faca apostas e monitore os resultados a qualquer hora e em qualquer lugar. Casa de apostas confiavel A plataforma opera sob uma licenca e usa criptografia SSL para proteger os dados do usuario. Para seguranca adicional, a autenticacao de dois fatores (2FA) tambem e implementada. Bonus e promocoes Novos usuarios recebem bonus de boas-vindas, e usuarios regulares tem a oportunidade de participar de promocoes, cashback e torneios com premios acumulados. Suporte para sistemas de pagamento locais A plataforma aceita cartoes bancarios e PIX para depositos e saques faceis. Transmissoes ao vivo de partidas A possibilidade de assistir as partidas ao vivo diretamente na plataforma em qualidade HD Suporte 24 horas por dia, 7 dias por semana Nossa equipe de suporte 24 horas por dia, 7 dias por semana, esta pronta para responder a quaisquer perguntas via chat, e-mail ou telefone. Nenhuma outra casa de apostas tem uma funcionalidade tao rica. bet brasil https://betbra-br.com/ Jasontow 11 Jun 2025 - 11:48 pm nexus onion darknet drug market darknet markets url Michaelorbic 11 Jun 2025 - 10:39 pm dark web sites dark market list darknet drug market Nikkymub 11 Jun 2025 - 10:27 pm darknet market nexus market darknet dark market onion Michaelorbic 11 Jun 2025 - 08:42 pm nexus onion mirror darknet site darknet marketplace Jasontow 11 Jun 2025 - 07:57 pm dark markets darknet market lists dark web market urls Anterior 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Siguiente Siéntete a gusto de dejarnos un mensaje en nuestro libro de visitas: Tu nombre o Ingresar Tu dirección de correo (no se mostrará) ¿De qué color es el pasto? (chequeo de seguridad) Mensaje *	Ingresar - Registrarse Menú Sala de Chat Libro de Visitas Últimos miembros
Tu Sitio Web Gratis © 2025 Keyla Musik

Libro de Visitas

Siéntete a gusto de dejarnos un mensaje en nuestro libro de visitas:

Menú

Últimos miembros